The moment of truth has arrived for energy companies strategizing for the energy transition. For most oil and gas firms, and even most power producers, low-carbon energy investing and technology-based business model transformations have been sideshows to the decades-long core business of managing operating margins for fossil fuel extraction and use. Following the disruptions of the early 2020s, transformative responses by governments to realign industrial policy with climate goals and cleantech dominance, along with a sudden infusion of cash from ricocheting supply shortfalls means that energy companies now have the money and the incentive to move quickly into the energy transition. How quickly can their capex mix evolve? How will business models shift? Will private markets become a refuge for large oil and gas firms with legacy asset mixes that have extraordinary cashflow characteristics but limited exit liquidity? How can regulators, politicians and investors prepare?