Carlos Pascual

S&P Global Commodity Insights

Sr. Vice President Geopolitics and International Affairs

Carlos Pascual leads the integration of geopolitics, energy, and markets for S&P Global Commodity Insights. He works with clients globally on the challenges and opportunities of transitioning to a Net Zero emissions world and the implications for energy justice. Mr. Pascual also leads S&P Global Commodity Insights businesses in Latin America. Mr. Pascual was previously US Ambassador to both Mexico and Ukraine and was Special Assistant to the US president for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia on the National Security Council. As the former US Energy Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs at the State Department, Mr. Pascual established and directed the Energy Resources Bureau and served as the Senior Advisor to the Secretary of State on energy issues. Earlier, Mr. Pascual created the position of Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization in the State Department, establishing the first civilian response capacity to conflicts. Mr. Pascual is also a non-resident fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Stanford University and a Master of Public Policy degree from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Sessions With Carlos Pascual

Monday, 6 March

  • 12:00pm - 12:40pm (CST) / 06/mar/2023 06:00 pm - 06/mar/2023 06:40 pm

    Spotlight | De-globalization and the Fracturing of Global Trade
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    The globalization of trade fueled unprecedented economic opportunities and technological advances that pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and accelerated prosperity in the developed world. Has it reached its limits? The 2020 pandemic sparked a new wave of trade nationalism. The war in Ukraine entrenched fears of disruption. Have the WTO’s precepts for global trade become obsolete? Will new regional alignments prosper or become a deepening battleground of competition? What nations and industries stand to win and lose?
  • 02:15pm - 02:55pm (CST) / 06/mar/2023 08:15 pm - 06/mar/2023 08:55 pm

    Spotlight | Asian Energy Ministerial: Balancing energy security and transition?
    Asia is the world’s fastest growing region: in GDP, energy demand and GHG emissions. The thirst for energy to support economic growth is inexorable. Aligning that growth with climate targets is the world’s concern—redressing climate change is not possible without Asia’s deployment of renewable energies and carbon capture technologies. How are energy ministers leading this charge to meet energy demand and reduce emissions? What role does innovation play in this quest? Where will the capital come from, and at what cost?
  • 03:05pm - 03:45pm (CST) / 06/mar/2023 09:05 pm - 06/mar/2023 09:45 pm

    Shaping Energy Policy for an Uncertain World
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    Energy security, transition and affordability have emerged as a guiding mantra for energy policy. Are governments and markets equipped to act on the challenge? Supply disruptions, war and fragile supply chains have put markets on edge. What role can governments play to alleviate the economic and social impacts of energy shortages and rising prices? To manage disruptions on the road to Net Zero? How should industry and financial institutions be engaged? What are the solutions for developing nations, facing the harshest ravages of climate change, as they seek to rise out of energy poverty.
  • 04:15pm - 04:35pm (CST) / 06/mar/2023 10:15 pm - 06/mar/2023 10:35 pm

    Spotlight | Conversation with John Kerry
    Secretary John Kerry is the first Special Presidential Envoy on Climate. Since taking this position in 2021, no person has been more deeply entrenched and influential in the addressing the global climate challenge. How has that challenge evolved – after the pandemic, still in the midst of the war in Ukraine, and with perhaps the emergence of what some have called a new Cold War with China? Can the global oil and gas industry be accepted as part of the climate solution? Is eliminating methane emissions a litmus test for industry commitment? What impacts and controversies are emerging from the IRA? Is the world taking action to meet developing country demands?
  • 07:30pm - 09:00pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 01:30 am - 07/mar/2023 03:00 am

    Ukraine: War and its aftermath
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    Ukraine’s resilience, with international military and economic support, have allowed Ukraine to withstand Russia’s attack and change the momentum of the war. But what will it take for Ukraine to reclaim its national sovereignty and territorial integrity? Is a negotiated peace viable in Ukraine? As the impacts of war and migration hit harder in Europe and elsewhere, what will it take to sustain Trans-Atlantic unity? And what conditions and resources are needed for Ukraine to build a prosperous and democratic future?

Tuesday, 7 March

  • 10:30am - 11:10am (CST) / 07/mar/2023 04:30 pm - 07/mar/2023 05:10 pm

    Voices of Innovation: Felipe Bayón
  • 11:55am - 12:45pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 05:55 pm - 07/mar/2023 06:45 pm

    Energy Markets: The growing role of government
    Markets/Economics/Strategy
    Acute stress in oil and gas markets and fear of social and political impacts are causing governments to intervene. Will the G7’s price cap on Russian oil and products avert a debilitating price spike for the world economy and deny Russia resources to sustain the war? How is Europe defusing the impact of gas shortages—to secure supply and ease social distress? Are governments incentivizing or confusing investments in sustainability? What are we learning about tradeoffs and risks? What will be the role of new public/private partnerships in driving future energy investment?
  • 02:25pm - 02:55pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 08:25 pm - 07/mar/2023 08:55 pm

    Spotlight | Conversation with OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    OPEC continues to represent the world’s largest bloc of oil suppliers. What role will it play in fostering global energy security and managing the energy transition? OPEC’s new Secretary General will share his vision for OPEC, the evolution of oil markets, securing investments in hydrocarbons to meet global demand and reducing emissions to address the challenges of climate change. For OPEC and energy producers and consumers around the world, how will technology and innovation change energy markets, and in what timeframe? In 2023, COP28 will be hosted by UAE, one of OPEC’s members. How will that affect OPEC’s focus and action on sustainability? What role can OPEC and its members play in advancing the call from developing countries for support on energy access and a “just” energy transition?
  • 03:15pm - 03:55pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 09:15 pm - 07/mar/2023 09:55 pm

    Spotlight | Energy and Europe's Future Security
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has driven the European Union and the United Kingdom to decouple from Russian oil and gas. What does decoupling mean, and how will it affect Europe’s security? In the short run can the European Union and the United Kingdom secure the natural gas and energy flows it needs to sustain public support? Over the coming decade, the European Union and the United Kingdom have committed to energy systems that are resilient and environmentally sustainable. Can they attract investment to succeed and compete? How will these transitions affect the Trans-Atlantic relationship? Europe’s future in NATO? Europe’s own security institutions?
  • 04:55pm - 05:35pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 10:55 pm - 07/mar/2023 11:35 pm

    Spotlight | Ministerial Plenary
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    The world has never faced a harsher stress test of energy transition to Net Zero while securing the energy supplies needed to sustain a global economy. Hydrocarbons pervade every aspect of life, from fuels to plastic to food to pharmaceuticals. How quickly can global demand shift? How will energy investment and supply emerge to meet these challenges? How can governments make partners of industrial sectors that hold critical technical knowledge and operational capacity? What will be the social impacts? Energy ministers stand at the center of guiding and implementing this quest for security and transition along a path to net zero.
  • 05:35pm - 06:05pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 11:35 pm - 08/mar/2023 12:05 am

    Spotlight | Energy, Geopolitics, and Algorithmic Warfare: The Power of Information
    Information – used strategically – is a tool for empowerment. Can companies link each piece of equipment to their supplies chains to mitigate vulnerabilities? Can real time data on emission sources create the power to abate them? In the defense field, how much smarter can satellites and drones make tactical operations? Can algorithms begin to neutralize howitzers or asymmetric force levels? Can mapping of social media multiply the power of intelligence to counter terrorism? Will insight and preparedness reshape geopolitical power? Join Palantir CEO Alex Karp, with Bob Dudley (Chairman of the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative), to understand how the power of information is today reshaping commerce, security and geopolitics.
  • 07:30pm - 09:00pm (CST) / 08/mar/2023 01:30 am - 08/mar/2023 03:00 am

    Dinner & Dialogue | Geopolitics: Reshaping the world
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    In 2022, the global norms on security, politics, trade and energy were shattered. The international community found itself unable to prevent or stop the war in Ukraine. Supply chains for food, energy and minerals are in disarray. US-China tensions threaten stability in Asia and dysfunctional rivalries in trade. A new North-South divide has emerged on energy and climate. How will companies navigate this uncertainty? And what will guide strategic choices for the future?

Wednesday, 8 March

  • 03:15pm - 03:55pm (CST) / 08/mar/2023 09:15 pm - 08/mar/2023 09:55 pm

    Spotlight | Ministerial Plenary
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    The world has not faced a more daunting stress test than the energy transition to net zero while securing the energy supplies needed to sustain a global economy. Hydrocarbons pervade every aspect of life, from fuels and plastic to food and pharmaceuticals. How quickly can global demand shift? How will energy investment and supply meet these challenges? Will industrial sectors that hold critical technical knowledge and operational capacity be accepted as partners? What will be the social impacts? Energy ministers stand at the center of guiding and implementing this quest for security and transition along a path to net zero.
  • 04:05pm - 04:45pm (CST) / 08/mar/2023 10:05 pm - 08/mar/2023 10:45 pm

    The Geopolitics of Energy Security and Transition
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    Much has been speculated about the geopolitical benefits of a net-zero world, fueled through renewable energies and revamped supply chains to support them. Energy, in theory, becomes locally sourced, not a tool of geopolitical power. Yet the world is only starting to grapple with the geopolitical impacts of making this transition. War in Ukraine has taught us that we need new policies, greater resilience and new tool kits. As the energy transition unfolds, what does energy justice mean across nations? How can we ensure adequate hydrocarbon supplies if they face massive retrenchment in coming decades? How do rich and poor governments incentivize technology investment guided by markets and not ideology? What are the new risks and opportunities in mineral supply chains and cyber vulnerability?

Thursday, 9 March

  • 10:50am - 11:30am (CST) / 09/mar/2023 04:50 pm - 09/mar/2023 05:30 pm

    Spotlight | How to End Global Energy Poverty
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    Energy poverty is limited access to energy resources that precludes people and nations from meeting basic human needs and achieving their aspirations for a better future. About 750 million people, mostly in Africa, lack complete energy access and about 3.5 billion do not have reliable power for more than a few hours a day. Developing countries are demanding access to power technologies and financing on competitive terms. Bridging this gap has become a global challenge—to mobilize resources and new capacities at scale. How much of the problem can be solved through innovation in distributed energies? Is reinvention needed in global financial and development strategies? In commercial practices? Join a discussion on emerging solutions that can define a path of progress.

Friday, 10 March

  • 08:50am - 09:35am (CST) / 10/mar/2023 02:50 pm - 10/mar/2023 03:35 pm

    How Fast Can Innovation Scale?
    Innovation & Technology
    Last year taught us that our global energy system still does not have the resilience to sustain a sudden and forced transition to a net-zero world. The International Energy Agency estimates that about half of the technologies needed to deliver net-zero emissions by 2050 are not currently commercially competitive. What is needed to accelerate the journey from laboratories to commercial application to financing to deployment? Should multiple tracks—such as hydrogen; carbon capture, utilization and storage; and fusion—move forward in parallel to mitigate risk? What new vulnerabilities will come with innovation, from supply chain to cyber risks? How can innovation create an agenda for resilience?
  • 11:10am - 11:45am (CST) / 10/mar/2023 05:10 pm - 10/mar/2023 05:45 pm

    Technology, China and the New Security Agenda
    Geopolitics/Policy/Regulatory
    Interconnectivity has become indispensable for success. How do we prevent it from becoming our greatest security liability? The move to interconnected digital systems that use the power of data to generate knowledge, find efficiencies and even reduce emissions is inevitable. Yet hackers have also attacked power plants, airports, industrial sights and gasoline pipelines. Is the exponential growth of cyber risk inevitable? Could it threaten the promise of digital learning and connectivity? How do we build a new security agenda to grasp the promise of interconnectivity and safeguard our future?
VIEW FULL AGENDA