Atul Arya

S&P Global Commodity Insights

Senior Vice President and Chief Energy Strategist

Atul Arya, Chief Energy Strategist, S&P Global, is responsible for integrating energy content, analysis and insights across the entire energy value chain and for C-suite client engagements. Atul’s areas of expertise include energy strategy, climate change, energy transition, renewables, CCS, clean energy technologies, upstream oil/gas and energy markets. He has over 35 years of experience in the energy industry including senior positions with bp and IHS Markit. Atul has previously served on boards of several companies and institutions including Tata BP Solar, Green Mountain Energy and National Council for Atmospheric Research. He was a member of the World Economic Forum’s Agenda Councils on Climate Change, Advanced Energy Technologies & Future of Oil and Gas and served as Adjunct Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations. Atul was the Study Director for the National Petroleum Council's report Principles, and Oil & Gas Industry Initiatives and Technologies for Progressing to Net Zero published in Dec 2022. He is a speaker and moderator at public conferences, company boards and industry events and is a member of the CERAWeek leadership team. Atul holds Ph.D. degree in engineering. Atul Arya, Chief Energy Strategist, S&P Global, is responsible for integrating energy content, analysis and insights across the entire energy value chain and for C-suite client engagements. Atul’s areas of expertise include energy strategy, climate change, energy transition, renewables, CCS, clean energy technologies, upstream oil/gas and energy markets. He has over 35 years of experience in the energy industry including senior positions with bp and IHS Markit. Atul has previously served on boards of several companies and institutions including Tata BP Solar, Green Mountain Energy and National Council for Atmospheric Research. He was a member of the World Economic Forum’s Agenda Councils on Climate Change, Advanced Energy Technologies & Future of Oil and Gas and served as Adjunct Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations. Atul was the Study Director for the National Petroleum Council's report Principles, and Oil & Gas Industry Initiatives and Technologies for Progressing to Net Zero published in Dec 2022.  He is a speaker and moderator at public conferences, company boards and industry events and is a member of the CERAWeek leadership team. Atul holds Ph.D. degree in engineering.

Sessions With Atul Arya

Monday, 6 March

  • 09:15am - 09:55am (CST) / 06/mar/2023 03:15 pm - 06/mar/2023 03:55 pm

    Dual Challenge: Accelerating energy transition while ensuring energy security
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    The global consensus around the need for an emissions-focused energy transition has become consistently stronger. Yet challenges to achieving it have also become more evident. One challenge is obvious—the uncertain pace of technological development and deployment and the timing required to reach scale. The need for energy security was a concern that had largely faded over the past several years. The energy shock, the economic hardship that ensued, skyrocketing energy prices that could not have been imagined 18 months ago and geopolitical competition and conflicts—have all combined to bring energy security back to the fore. In retrospect, there cannot be energy transition without energy security. In this conversation, the panelists will address the following questions: Is the current energy crisis the first crisis of energy transition? And how should future shocks be avoided? What would a balanced and orderly transition look like? Will the focus on energy security speed up or slow down this energy transition? Is there too much optimism on scale-up and deployment of technologies such as CCUS, hydrogen and long-duration storage? What would you recommend to move this conversation outside the room of the energy cognoscenti—to engage broader public stakeholder groups..
  • 02:15pm - 02:55pm (CST) / 06/mar/2023 08:15 pm - 06/mar/2023 08:55 pm

    Low-carbon Pathways to Net Zero
    Carbon Management/Decarbonization
    In “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that net zero by 2050 requires “nothing short of a total transformation of the energy system that underpins our economies,” and “the pathway is narrow but achievable.” In the past two years, there has been a groundswell of net-zero commitments by countries and companies across a wide spectrum of sectors led by the energy sector. At the same time, after the 2020 pandemic-induced drop, global GHG emissions have resumed an upward trajectory. Although there has been considerable progress in reducing emissions in the power sector, the progress in other sectors, notably transport, industry, residential and agriculture, has been very slow. In this conversation, we will discuss the potential pathways to net zero across a spectrum of sectors and the challenges to achieve these goals. How quickly can light-duty transport sector be decarbonized? What are the technological choices in heavy-duty transport, including air and shipping? What are the potential pathways to reduce emissions in the industrial sector? Is there an economic case for hydrogen and CCS now? How far can “electrification of everything” go? How would you accelerate deployment of energy infrastructure ready for net-zero—transmission lines, charging stations, hydrogen plants, pipelines, etc., (considering local opposition)? Will consumers have to pay higher energy and fuel prices for the foreseeable future to support net-zero goals?
  • 03:05pm - 03:45pm (CST) / 06/mar/2023 09:05 pm - 06/mar/2023 09:45 pm

    Scaling Critical Technologies: How quick?
    Innovation & Technology
    A wide spectrum of climate technologies is necessary to reduce emissions. While solar PV and wind are commercial and being deployed at scale, IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap for the global energy sector stated that 50% of emissions reductions in 2050 are expected to come from technologies that are not yet available at scale: carbon capture and storage, hydrogen/ammonia, large duration storage and advanced nuclear. In 2022, U.S. (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act) and EU (European Green Deal, Fit For 55 and REPowerEU) passed legislations to accelerate deployment and scaling of clean energy technologies. However, rapid deployment of these technologies in developing nations will be crucial for their decarbonization and development goals. Why is government intervention and investment necessary for scaling critical technologies? Should the EU follow the U.S. strategy and provide green subsidies to the European industry? Would CCS, hydrogen and long-duration storage follow the same cost and deployment trajectory as solar PV? Is there too much techno-optimism? What actions should policymakers take (in your respective regions) to streamline permitting of clean energy infrastructure? Forecasts for peak oil turned out to be very wrong. Will it be the same for critical minerals, i.e., demand growth will incentivize new sources of supply? What is needed to accelerate the flow of technology and investment to developing countries?
  • 03:55pm - 04:35pm (CST) / 06/mar/2023 09:55 pm - 06/mar/2023 10:35 pm

    Decarbonizing Solutions for Hard to Abate Industries
    Transportation & Mobility/Electrification (EVs/built environment)
    The so called “hard-to-abate” industries including heavy-duty transport, steel, cement, fertilizers and petrochemicals account for over 20% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. These industries use coal and natural gas as well as heat as part of their production process. While technology pathways are still emerging, hydrogen and CCS are considered key technologies to reduce emissions in these sectors. Another option is to convert captured carbon into a spectrum of useful products. An underlying challenge is the additional costs incurred to make these products “green” and the lack of markets and customers willing to pay a “green premium.” The panelists in this conversation will explore the following questions: Tell us about a major innovation led by your company to decarbonize these sectors? While there is a lot of enthusiasm for hydrogen as a potential solution, what is the business case for hydrogen today and what is the path to commerciality without subsidies? How can industry promote circularity of materials, extend product lifetimes, substitution and efficiency? Are customers willing to pay a “green premium”; e.g., for “green steel or “low-emission concrete”? Will policies such as “Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism” help or hinder decarbonization of these sectors? What government policies are needed to achieve industrial decarbonization?
  • 07:30pm - 09:00pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 01:30 am - 07/mar/2023 03:00 am

    Is Sustainable Investing Accelerating the Energy Transition?
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    Getting to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will require trillions of dollars in investments. Fiscal policies, complemented by a broad range of regulatory and financial policies, will be necessary to enable this transition. The global financial industry can play an important role in financing the transition to a greener economy. After years of rapid and consistent growth, ESG investing faced new headwinds in 2022. A surge in sustainability-related funds and products has created suspicions about reporting, standards and greenwashing in many jurisdictions. In the United States, opposition to ESG concepts has driven certain Republican-controlled states to shift some investments and threaten more. At the same time, the oil and gas sector outperformed the market by a wide margin and energy was the only sector within the S&P 500 that generated a positive share price return in 2022. Consequently, there have been increasing questions about the ESG’s relevance amid changing market conditions and how funds will implement their commitments to invest “sustainably.” Is ESG investing suffering from growing pains or is the support wavering? In 2022, large money managers reduced their support for ESG-focused shareholder proposals and industry alliances? How will this impact energy transition investments? Will the focus on energy security and affordability accelerate investments in hydrocarbons and slow down investments in clean energies? How should funding for mitigation and adaptation be mobilized for emerging economies? What regulatory oversight do you support or recommend to prevent “greenwashing”?

Tuesday, 7 March

  • 12:30pm - 01:00pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 06:30 pm - 07/mar/2023 07:00 pm

    Why Carbon Is Not the Enemy
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    While it is understood that emissions of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, cause global warming, discussion continues about decarbonization and a “post-carbon economy.” With carbon the most abundant element in the universe, it is everywhere--oil in our cars, the DNA in our cells, the cattle in our fields and in our soil. The bonds of carbon chains hold energy, and when they are broken that stored energy is released and carbon dioxide is emitted. How do we change the conversation around carbon, from being seen as an enemy to a resource?
  • 01:30pm - 02:10pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 07:30 pm - 07/mar/2023 08:10 pm

    Voices of Innovation: Arun Majumdar
    A conversation with Atul Arya and Arun Majumdar.
  • 02:25pm - 03:05pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 08:25 pm - 07/mar/2023 09:05 pm

    Mapping the Global Energy Transition
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    Last year will be long remembered as a year when the world—and the energy world—changed in multiple ways. Accelerating net-zero ambitions—amid conflict, disruption in global energy markets and global economic headwinds— have been surprising and unexpected developments with the launch of the RePower EU plan in Europe and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States. The IRA, along with the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science (CHIPS), will turbo charge investments in a wide spectrum of clean energy technologies in the United States and will launch a new era of U.S. industrial policy. At the same time, energy security once again became a priority for governments in the face of an “energy war” in Europe, high prices and shortages. COP27 did not produce dramatic agreements that some would have expected. Although there was a pledge on “loss and damage,” the structure and funding of the mechanism have yet to be worked out. There was no progress on the mitigation front. According to estimates from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the current set of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) (many non-binding) would only reduce emissions by approximately 2% in 2030 relative to 2019 levels, compared with the 23% reduction (relative to 2019) that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sets as the benchmark required to align with a 1.5°C pathway. Due to the war in Ukraine, decades of policies and precedent were put aside by countries around the world to rewire the global energy system. Global carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to have increased by 1% in 2022, hitting a new record of 37.5 billion tonnes. The fastest emissions growth comes from India, with an estimated 6% increase compared with 2021. In light of these and many other uncertainties, how does the panel think about the future map of energy transition? In this fluid and uncertain environment should energy companies invest in oil/gas supplies and infrastructure even if the useful life of these new investments is uncertain? Should they accelerate investments in energy transition technologies when investors do not seem to reward these portfolio changes? What is the realistic pace of change in the global energy mix without leading to unintended consequences? How should energy transition play out in emerging economies where emissions may continue to increase for some years before reversing the trend? How can the transition be just, orderly and balanced? What will this require? And what are the differences in “just transition” perspectives across the United States, the European Union, and the developing world?
  • 04:05pm - 04:45pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 10:05 pm - 07/mar/2023 10:45 pm

    Company Strategies to Lower Emissions
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    In 2020/21, the pandemic brought accelerated investor interest in climate and ESG and fueled the narrative around the decline of fossil fuels (and fossil fuel producers). In 2022, these trends seemed to slow and—in some quarters—even reverse. The war in Ukraine revived the specters of inadequate energy supplies and high prices. There was more acceptance that conventional fuels will play a key role in the energy mix for years to come and this in turn raised concerns about underinvestment in existing energy systems. After several years of poor returns and share price underperformance, oil and gas companies—by a wide margin—led the market. While the direction of travel appears to be clear—increasing focus on climate and sustainability—the pace seems less certain. The focus has returned to the trilemma of energy security, affordability and sustainability, and the need to balance the energy transition with sustained investment in conventional fuels. Climate-focused policies remain uneven globally. COP27 responded to some longstanding demands but prompted new questions on how the promises will be implemented. For investors, the correlation between sustainability and market performance is much less evident, raising concerns around how to generate returns while meeting demands for sustainable portfolios. How should companies allocate capital between conventional and newer technologies? What role should conventional energy producers play in delivering the new energy technologies that are needed for the energy transition? How far can electrification realistically go to achieve net-zero goals? Are digital technologies delivering their promise to support sustainability goals? Is diversification the right approach, and will investors reward it?
  • 05:00pm - 05:30pm (CST) / 07/mar/2023 11:00 pm - 07/mar/2023 11:30 pm

    Social Cost of Carbon: A Conversation with Richard Newell
    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is defined as the cost of the damages created by one extra ton of carbon dioxide emissions. According to some, it is the single most important number that nobody has heard about. The social cost of carbon is used to help policy makers determine whether the costs and benefits of a proposed policy to curb climate change are justified. In this conversation Richard Newell will discuss how social cost of carbon is calculated, how it is used, and the difference between SCC and the carbon price companies are using to evaluate investments.

Wednesday, 8 March

  • 07:15am - 08:20am (CST) / 08/mar/2023 01:15 pm - 08/mar/2023 02:20 pm

    Resilience, Technology Pathways and Energy Transition: The new National Petroleum Council reports
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    In July 2022, U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm requested that the National Petroleum Council (NPC) conduct an analysis on the energy transition, including steps industry is taking to be an active player in a net-zero economy by 2050. The Progressing to Net Zero report identifies several critical considerations to be taken into account to enable a successful transition over future decades: Transition should be source agnostic; Increased technology collaboration is required to accelerate transition; Policy support is necessary to accelerate deployment and cost reductions; The oil and gas industry has an essential role to play to reduce emissions; Federal, state and local governments also have essential roles to play; Policies that inadvertently cause shortages and consumer pain should be avoided and the energy transition will require significant new investments. 
  • 09:30am - 10:00am (CST) / 08/mar/2023 03:30 pm - 08/mar/2023 04:00 pm

    Economic Growth, Climate Change and Investment Choices
    Description to update on program and website (edited today, 2/26 by Atul): It is well known that energy consumption is inexorably linked to economic growth. However, even after decades of economic growth, citizens around the world, particularly in Africa and Asia, remain impoverished economically and in their energy use. In 2020 the average annual per capita energy supply of about 40 percent of the world’s population (3.1 billion people, which includes nearly all people in sub-Saharan Africa) was no higher than the rate achieved in both Germany and France in 1860 (Vaclav Smil, 2022). Funding for climate mitigation and adaptation remains woefully inadequate and developed countries have yet to meet the $100 billion/year commitment to developing countries first made in 2009 while billions of dollars are being invested by the US and EU to deploy clean energy technologies domestically. In this conversation we will discuss what is the realistic pace of transition in developing countries, how to accelerate climate finance and technology transfer to emerging economies.
  • 10:30am - 11:10am (CST) / 08/mar/2023 04:30 pm - 08/mar/2023 05:10 pm

    Voices of Innovation: Bill Vass
    A conversation with Atul Arya and Bill Vass
  • 02:30pm - 03:00pm (CST) / 08/mar/2023 08:30 pm - 08/mar/2023 09:00 pm

    The Current State of Climate Change
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    2022 Emissions Gap Report issued by the UN in October 2022 highlighted that policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century. Implementation of the current pledges will make only a negligible difference. Extreme heatwaves, drought and devastating flooding have affected millions and cost billions in 2022—those least responsible for climate change are suffering the most—as was seen with the flooding in Pakistan and the long-running drought in the Horn of Africa. In this conversation we will discuss: Are goals of the Paris Climate Agreement out of reach now? What would you do to bend the global GHG emission curve within this decade? Why has there been so little progress on adaptation finance when millions of people are already facing acute impacts of climate change?
  • 03:15pm - 03:55pm (CST) / 08/mar/2023 09:15 pm - 08/mar/2023 09:55 pm

    Can this Energy Transition Be a Revolution?
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    Historically, energy transitions have been multi-faceted. Biomass is the energy source from which the world transitioned into coal. Yet even that initial transition is far from finished. Globally more than 2.6 billion people do not have access to clean cooking fuel. For these people, including much of the population in sub-Saharan Africa, the shift from biomass to LPG for cooking will be a 21st century energy transition that will reduce local air pollution, improve health and livelihood and spare women the hours spent gathering wood. Staggering growth in energy demand appears ahead, even with continuing improvement in energy efficiency. Energy transitions are not new. But this one is different because of that imperative to reduce emissions while at the same time enabling energy consumption to continue to grow. Other key differences are the speed and all-encompassing scale it implies—net-zero by 2050. In prior transitions, externalities such as the impact and cost of emissions were not considered. These differentiators make this transition—untested in the history of energy—more challenging than any previous energy transitions. This transition is driven more by policy and market interventions aimed at reducing emissions, than by market economics and technology. Previous energy transitions have unfolded over a century or more, not in a quarter of a century. Moreover, energy transitions have not reduced or replaced the existing energy base before the new energy base was ready; instead, they resulted from new sources being added atop the existing mix. In short, global energy systems cannot be rebuilt overnight. Capital stock, i.e., hardware has a lifespan of decades and cannot be changed as quickly as software. The target to achieve net zero by mid-century is extremely challenging as evidenced by the quick rebound in emissions in 2021-22 after the drop in 2020 due to COVID-19. What is the realistic pace of change for energy and emission transitions without leading to unintended consequences? Will consumers have to pay higher energy prices for the foreseeable future to reduce emissions? How should energy transition play out in emerging economies where emissions may continue to increase for some years before reversing the trend? How can the transition be just, orderly and “well managed”? What will this require?
  • 04:30pm - 05:10pm (CST) / 08/mar/2023 10:30 pm - 08/mar/2023 11:10 pm

    Book Talk with David Victor | Fixing the Climate
    Please join us to hear from David Victor about his book, Fixing the Climate: Strategies for an Uncertain World, and to engage in an interactive Q&A session. Followed by an opportunity to receive a signed copy of the book in our Agora Atrium.

Thursday, 9 March

  • 11:00am - 11:30am (CST) / 09/mar/2023 05:00 pm - 09/mar/2023 05:30 pm

    Groundbreaking Technologies
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    Will technologies come to the rescue to meet goals of the Paris Climate Accord? The importance and need of technologies—existing as well as those on the horizon—is highlighted in every energy transition conversation. Wind, solar PV and batteries have made significant improvements in performance and cost over the last two decades. However, hydrocarbons still account for 80% of primary energy supply—just as was the case 30 years back. This panel will discuss: What is necessary to accelerate the pace of deployment and development of clean energy technologies? Which technologies have the potential to scale to a gigaton in this decade? Considering the scale of change necessary in the global energy system, what should policy makers and investors do to accelerate the pace of transformation?
  • 01:30pm - 02:10pm (CST) / 09/mar/2023 07:30 pm - 09/mar/2023 08:10 pm

    Voices of Innovation: KR Sridhar
    A conversation with Atul Arya and KR Sridhar.
  • 04:15pm - 04:55pm (CST) / 09/mar/2023 10:15 pm - 09/mar/2023 10:55 pm

    Book Talk with Chris Miller | Chip War
    Please join us to hear from Chris Miller about his book, Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, and to engage in an interactive Q&A session. Followed by an opportunity to receive a signed copy of the book in our Agora Atrium.

Friday, 10 March

  • 08:00am - 08:50am (CST) / 10/mar/2023 02:00 pm - 10/mar/2023 02:50 pm

    Reflections | Navigating a Turbulent World: Energy, climate and security
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    In this interactive and fast-paced conversation, S&P Global experts will reflect on what they heard during the week, significant technology breakthroughs, how companies and policy makers are addressing the trilemma and new insights they gained. We will discuss What was the biggest surprise? What is one thing they will remember until CERAWeek 2024? How did their panelists connect the dots across security, affordability and sustainability? What is the one prediction about the energy markets they will make at the end of the week?
  • 11:45am - 12:25pm (CST) / 10/mar/2023 05:45 pm - 10/mar/2023 06:25 pm

    Reimagining the Energy Future
    Energy Transition/Climate & Sustainability
    The year 2022 will be long remembered as a year when the world—and the energy world—changed in multiple ways. Accelerating net-zero ambitions—amid conflict, disruption in global energy markets and global economic headwinds—have been surprising and unexpected developments in 2022 with the launch of RePower EU plan in Europe and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States. At the same time, energy security once again became a priority for governments in the face of an “energy war” in Europe, high prices and shortages. COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, did not produce dramatic agreements that some would have expected. Although there was a pledge on “loss and damage,” the structure and funding of the mechanism have yet to be worked out. There was no progress on the mitigation front. In this final conversation, we will synthesize what panelists heard during the week and discuss how to “reimagine the energy future”: Why is the world falling short of reducing emissions? What systemic changes are required to reduce emissions while meeting current and future energy demand? How will the trilemma be solved? Are commercially available technology solutions on the horizon? How do energy cognoscenti at CERAWeek engage with broader public stakeholder groups to create alignment on future net-zero pathways?
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